Broadcaster RIP 2007

With the explosion in broadband, ability for everyone to publish on MySpace and upload their videos onto YouTube, and people searching more and more for content (rather than being told what to watch, play or read), many pundits are declaring the death of the broadcaster, and the birth of the "plasma-screen-connected-to-the-internet-with-Google-as-their-EPG-to-other-people's-creations" society. Fact or fiction?

Well there certainly are a lot of signs pointing towards a very difficult time for TV broadcasters in 2007 and beyond. At the heart of this are three main shifts... consumers are spending more time online, they are creating more content, and are able to discover stuff they like through search and peer recommendations.

1. Let's explore the first in a little more detail. Be it the recent Ofcom report or what we see in our daily lives, the "dumb" box in the corner is definitely becoming less a part of who we are and our attention is shifting towards the PC, mobile media players, games console, and other devices. The clearest sign that this trend is for real is that a larger and larger share of advertising money is (finally) following. It is of course is the ultimate shock to the system the broadcasters needed to force them to wake up and respond to what their audience knew way back. This in many ways is quite a manageable change... people are using different screens to access essentially the same type of content... maybe a little shorter and some interactivity thrown in but that's it... right? All I need to do is create advertising inventory for my mates to buy and we're sorted.
2. Well... not really. That's the second point. People are not just spending time on the likes of AtomFilms or MiniClip (which are basically online broadcasters). They are shifting more and more towards what are essentially publishing platforms such as Metacafe, Bebo and yes... Vox. With this explosion in choice, competition is just a click away. The whole model of acquiring (exclusive) rights to help differentiate what is essentially a pipe with a logo and a couple of nice idents and some advertising strapped around it, is also starting to look tired. Now consumers can self publish and make money from it, be that through Google AdSense, Casale or other online advertising networks. 
3. But they still need to find this content, don't they? Yes, they do but that's where search and peer networks come in. Why trust what a broadcaster's scheduler thinks you should watch when you can find it yourself or check out what you friends love watching. Just try out the latest MSN Messenger where you can see the music your friends are playing or install LastFM to see what the wider community is up to, and get a glimpse of what may happen in the broadcast world.

All this frightens (or should frighten) the living day-lights out of most broadcasters. Beware the prophets of doom though... it's not that bad. In my opinion, while the above trends are real and will definitely have an impact on the TV business, consumers will still want shared viewing experiences (i.e. broadcast) of high production value content (i.e. not just user generated) recommended by taste-makers (i.e. recognised brands or people)... which means that THERE IS A ROLE FOR BROADCASTERS BEYOND 2007.

There is a "BIG SHIFT" needed though which I believe will determine the size of any role. While the core job of a broadcaster won't change - create great content that your audience want to share in - the skills required will be very very different. The big shift needed is towards the audience; big because broadcasters have been used to the good life of terrestrial television or their positions on the Sky EPG, where viewing is much more of a passive "feed me" world, where the need to REALLY ensure the audience want to share in what a commissioner has created is a lot less. Now, in an online world, if they don't like it, flick (or click) and they're off.

That in my mind is not only the biggest but also the hardest shift to make. Hard, because it will only work when the audience is part of the DNA of your business, and beyond a certain size and history it becomes very very difficult to change any business culture. The Titanic has left the dock and is sailing for the ice berg... only radical changes to structures, staffing, systems etc. will make it work.

All other changes become a function of this successful shift in culture, whether it's figuring how to produce the right content, distribute it, or what your channel brand stands for in this new world. Once you know your audience intimately and have changed the culture of your business to truly embrace them... this all becomes natural, easy and an enjoyable by-product. How to change that culture? That's another discussion altogether.